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6-27 Miller might make it at MNF

Adam Nathaniel Davis: Dennis Miller is the second coming of Howard Cosell. Dennis Miller is the death of Monday Night Football. Somewhere between those two extremes lies the truth regarding Miller's appointment to the MNF broadcast booth.

At first glance Miller's hiring seems bizarre. He is a comedian invited into a world that is geared to be exciting, mean, and violent ­- but not funny. He's political while the broadcast booth routinely punts on political issues. His sensibility is esoteric, apparently ill-suited to the mainstream appeal of MNF.

Despite all of this, I think there's reason to believe Miller's presence is a step in the right direction.

Sports broadcasting is an exercise in balance. Allow one announcer to become too anecdotal (Bob Costas, Bill Walton), too mathematical (Doug Collins), too talkative (Dick Vitale, Jerry Glanville), or too analytical (Joe Theismann) and the whole broadcast breaks down.

Miller provides the balance that Monday Night was missing. Last year's combination, while refreshing for its two-man approach, ground to a halt because the inexperienced Boomer Esiason was working his way toward becoming another technical analyst. While his efforts were commendable, he was already sitting next to the best technical analyst in all of sport, Al Michaels.

Michaels would do any broadcast booth proud without the aid of a doppelganger. Miller's playfulness should compliment Michaels's more technical style and it just might make for a relaxed, easy chemistry.

The loudest knock against Miller seems to be that he has no football background. But Madden, Theismann, and Frank Gifford have already proven that an intimate knowledge of the game is not a precursor to intelligent analysis. Former players like Don Meredith, Joe Namath, and O.J. Simpson did not make their splash on MNF football because they possessed some superhuman knowledge of the game. They had personality, something Miller oozes.

Of course, the ultimate symbol of MNF personality was its patriarch, Cosell. For all his popularity, Cosell could at times make comments that made you wonder if he was watching the same game, or even the same sport, as the rest of us. While Cosell was something that Miller will never be -­ a consummate journalist -­ they both embody charisma, and charisma draws audiences.

Unfortunately for Miller, there are larger forces that will ultimately determine the success of this new team. Miller and fellow-newcomer Dan Fouts may indeed make a difference in the ratings, but the days of 40+ shares for Monday Night Football are over. There are too many cable channels and too many Web pages for a nation to be held in thrall by a single regular season football game.

Just as important, the network is routinely hamstrung by a series of weak match-ups. This season looks to be more promising, but Michaels & Co. will still have to fight through potential sleepers like Denver at St. Louis, Green Bay at Carolina, Kansas City at New England, and Dallas at Tennessee. No amount of broadcast booth posturing can save a boring game.

See also Miller Rants: What would Dennis Miller say if asked to comment on Dennis Miller?

 

6-26 Is Reggie Miller a clutch player?

Royce Webb: It's been a week now. The Lakers have had time to party, the Pacers time to cry.

So, let's revisit one of the great topics of the postseason -- Is Reggie Miller "clutch"?

Urban Sports Network calls him "the greatest money shooter in the history of the National Basketball Association."

ESPN says he is "a guy who is widely considered Mr. Fourth Quarter."

NBA.com says, "There is and never will be any question that Miller is one of the greatest clutch basketball players to ever bless the wood."

For years, we've been putting up with these claims. Maybe we even wanted to believe.

But the facts are simple.

Miller is neither "a clutch player" or "a choker." He's just a very good shooter who makes some shots at the ends of games and misses more, just as he does most nights he plays. It's really that simple.

Where are the facts to back up the claims that Reggie is "a clutch player"? Not anecdotes. Not "expert" opinion. Not legend. Facts.

The burden of proof is really on those who make such claims, but really it's even easier to knock down these straw men than to knock down Reggie himself.

If Miller were "a clutch player," wouldn't he have a higher shooting percentage in the playoffs than he does in the regular season?

But, in fact, his career field goal shooting is significantly worse in the postseason -- 48% in the regular season, only 45% in the postseason.

He's famous for his "clutch" three-pointers in the playoffs -- 40.3% in the regular season, 40.7% in the playoffs. Virtually identical.

Yes, Miller scores more in the playoffs. For a very simple reason. He shoots more!

In fact, he shoots an extra three times per game in the playoffs (and consequently gets to the line more) to score about three more points per game in the playoffs.

In the 2000 playoffs, he had a couple of memorable fourth quarters. On the other hand, he played in 23 games. When a player shoots as often as Reggie does, he'll have a couple of big fourth quarters by sheer chance.

If Miller were "a clutch player," wouldn't he shine brightest on the biggest stage, the NBA Finals?

Tell me if you see a pattern here --

Game 1, 1-for-16 on field goals, Pacers lose

Game 2, 1-for-5 on three-pointers, Pacers lose

Game 3, 11-for-22 on field goals, Pacers win

Games 1 thru 3, no field goals in fourth quarter

Over several postseason games, 44 consecutive free throws made

Game 4, 6-for-9 on three-pointers, misses three-pointer at buzzer, Pacers lose by 2

Game 5, 7-for-12 on field goals, Pacers win by 33

Game 6, 2-for-10 on three-pointers, Pacers lose in fourth quarter

If you can see a pattern here, then you know where the aliens are hidden at Roswell.

The claim that Player X is "a clutch player" bothers me on at least three levels.

1. It is bogus. In years of searching for the unicorn, no one has ever been able to find anyone in baseball or basketball who has consistently performed better in "the clutch" than he did the rest of the time.

2. It is simple-minded. It divides the world into "clutch" people and chokers, heroes and goats. When we say that Reggie Miller is "a clutch player," we are implying that others aren't "clutch players."

3. It is hype. The media feeds us these stories to keep us hooked.

It's been lots of fun to watch Reggie over the years. He's a unique player and a great shooter, and he has given us more drama and thrills than just about any player not wearing red and white. And that's good enough.

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